Sunday, April 02, 2006

convertibility of INR

Is there money to be made, from the convertibility of the Indian Rupee. Current INR/US$ exchange is such that 42 odd rupees for every dollar, but the current strenght of economy and foreign inflows and investments into india could mean, a strengthening of the currency when INR becomes convertible, so this 1:42 ratio between $/INR could change to something like 1:35 (more analysis required on this number).
So if money is sent to india today for every dollar 42 rupees is got, this money is put in short term investments (bonds or blue chip indian equity) untill convertibility of INR happens (which is expected this year.....Dr. Manmohan Singh has promised this). Once the exchange rate changes to 1:35, if we liquidate our investment, and bring money back to US, we will effectively get 1 $ for every 35 rupees. This is 20% gain, without considering the returns on the investment while the money is in India waiting for the conversion to happen.

Warning: the effect on INR after being made convertible is a debatable issue, my view is it will strengthen.......as more international money will flow into the fast growing indian economy, and asset market

No comments: